The boom has turned
The Department of Education’s May 2026 release is the first year-on-year contraction of the post-pandemic era. International enrolmentsfell to 752,784 — down 7.6% on a year earlier — and new commencementsfell 8.0%. The decline is not broad-based: it is concentrated in the VET and ELICOS pathway sectors and in the source markets that feed them, while Higher Education’s apparent resilience is likely affected by a comparability break from the Adelaide University merger.
A peak, then a turn
Enrolments compound: each year’s stock carries forward multi-year degree students, so the total is slow to move. It rose every year through the post-COVID recovery — from a 2022 trough of 521,818 to a May 2025 peak of 814,676. May 2026 breaks that run. The 61,892-student fall is the first decline since the borders reopened, and it lands even though the standing stock of continuing students should cushion it.
National international enrolments, May year-to-date
Blue marks the 2025 peak; red is the first post-recovery decline.
Commencements turned a year earlier
Commencements — students startinga course — are the leading indicator: they are new business, and they respond to policy within a single intake. They peaked at 283,379 in May 2024 and have fallen for two straight years, to 216,884 — now 23% below the 2024 peak. The enrolment stock is only now catching up to a downturn that commencements signalled in 2025. Because commencements lead, the direction of travel for 2027 enrolments is already set.
National commencements, May year-to-date
The leading indicator peaked in 2024 and has fallen two years running.
The decline is a VET and ELICOS story
Split by sector, the contraction is sharply uneven. ELICOS (English-language courses) fell 27% and VET(vocational) fell 20% — these are the shorter, cheaper, pathway products most exposed to the 2024–25 visa-integrity settings: the higher financial-capacity requirement, the Genuine Student test, and the enrolment caps under Ministerial Direction 111. Higher Education, by contrast, reads +2.3%— but that number should be treated with care (see below).
Enrolment change by sector — May 2025 → May 2026
Pathway sectors (ELICOS, VET) are carrying the entire decline.
Read Higher Education with care
Higher Education is the onlysector showing growth, yet every state’s total enrolments fell 5–12%. The likely explanation is a comparability break from the Adelaide University merger: on 1 January 2026 the two legacy universities’ continuing students moved onto a single new provider, which affects how the 2025 and 2026 figures line up. We are confirming the exact treatment with the Department before drawing firm conclusions. On a like-for-like basis, Higher Education looks closer to flat than to growth — more in step with the other sectors. We look at the merger’s effect on the year-on-year comparison in more detail in the South Australian commencement anomaly case study. For now, the sector’s small reported gain is best read with caution.
Where the students come from
The two anchor markets held up relatively well — China (170,943, −5.7%) and India (126,841, −9.8%) together still supply four in ten international students. The damage sits in the mid-tier pathway markets: the Philippines fell 36%, Colombia 28%, Thailand 25% and Brazil 17% — exactly the ELICOS- and VET-heavy source countries. Two markets buck the trend hard: Bangladesh surged 42% and Nepal, now the third-largest source at 67,448, edged up 3%.
Top 12 source markets — enrolments and year-on-year change
Bars sized by May 2026 enrolments; the pathway markets are falling fastest.
A broad-based geographic decline
Every major destination is down. The big three markets move together — NSW −7.5%, Victoria −7.8%, Queensland −8.7% — and the ACT, dominated by two universities, fell hardest at −12.0%. Only the two smallest jurisdictions grew: the Northern Territory (+9.5%) and Tasmania (+1.1%), each off a low base and each a beneficiary of the regional-study incentives that steer students away from the major cities.
Enrolment change by state — May 2025 → May 2026
The contraction is national; only NT and TAS, off small bases, grew.
The takeaway
Australia’s international education boom, which added a quarter of a million enrolments between 2022 and 2025, has rolled over. The turn is policy-driven and targeted: the visa-integrity settings of 2024–25 were aimed at the pathway end of the market, and that is precisely where the numbers are falling — ELICOS, VET, and the mid-tier source countries that feed them. Higher Education looks insulated, but that likely reflects a comparability break from the Adelaide University merger rather than genuine strength; on a like-for-like basis the picture is softer. And because commencements — the leading indicator — are down for a second year and sit 23% below their 2024 peak, the 2026 enrolment decline is the beginning of the adjustment, not the end of it.